Daraasad cusub: Guusha Polymarket kuma xirna dadweynaha ee waa koox yar oo aqoon leh
By Sam Reynolds
Daraasad cusub oo lagu sameeyay xogta Polymarket intii u dhaxaysay 2023 ilaa 2025 ayaa muujinaysa in 3% kaliya oo ka mid ah ganacsatada ay yihiin kuwa horseeda saxnaanta suuqa, halka dadka kale ay u badan yihiin kuwo nasiib ku tiirsan.
Daraasad ay soo saareen khubaro ka tirsan London Business School iyo Yale ayaa daah-furtay in aaminsanaanta ah in suuqyada saadaasha sida Polymarket ay ku tiirsan yihiin xikmadda dadweynaha ay tahay mid aan sal lahayn. Xogta 1.72 milyan oo akoon ayaa muujisay in koox yar oo aqoon leh ay yihiin kuwa saxaya qiimaha, halka 97% kale ay yihiin kuwa bixiya liquidity-ga balse inta badan khasaara. Si loo kala saaro xirfad iyo nasiib, cilmi-baarayaashu waxay isticmaaleen habka 'coin-flip' si ay u tijaabiyaan natiijooyinka ganacsatada. Waxaa soo baxday in kaliya 12% dadka ugu faa'iidada badan ay leeyihiin xirfad dhab ah, halka inta kale ay yihiin kuwo nasiib ku raacay, taas oo su'aal galinaysa kalsoonida guud ee suuqan.
Key Highlights
- 3% kaliya oo ka mid ah ganacsatada ayaa mas'uul ka ah inta badan dhaqdhaqaaqa qiimaha.
- Inta badan guulaha waa nasiib, iyadoo 60% dadka guulaystay ay khasaareen markii la tijaabiyay.
- Suuqyada saadaasha (prediction markets) waxay ku shaqeeyaan aqoonta koox yar oo xog-ogaal ah.